The Tale of Three Colts & the Quest of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
When sitting down to ‘build the yard sheet’ for FTY last Friday afternoon, I couldn’t help but glance at the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington. The 1000m feature event down the straight was highlighted, both in market terms and general narrative, by the resumption of the three 3yo colts: favourite Switzerland, Growing Empire and Traffic Warden. For the sake of sanity, I’ll spare people any sense of form (truth be told, I didn’t look any deeper and I never do, because as a yard man that’s only cheating yourself), and I’ll talk about what I’ve seen of them in the mounting yard.
Prior to Saturday at Flemington, I had seen Growing Empire four times, twice at Flemington, once at Caulfield and once at The Valley. The early pattern from his career in the mounting yard is he clearly parades better away from Flemington. I don’t know if there’s something about the racecourse, the stables, his routine at that track or the imposing surrounds, but he doesn’t show his best behaviour. While not entirely losing the plot, he’s trended more towards ‘toey’ behaviour, requiring two strappers to try and get him to settle, and he’s usually been presented late in the piece, with little warm-up in the pre-parade area back at the stables. This is in complete contrast to his parades at Caulfield and The Valley, where he’s been happy to drop his head, wander around with the one groom, and generally strut his stuff.
The lone parade I have in the database of both Switzerland and Traffic Warden was in the Coolmore Stud Stakes on November 2, 2024, which also featured Growing Empire. On that occasion, Traffic Warden was the narrow on-top selection from the mounting yard, from Switzerland, with both exhibiting a stylish walk to go with their physical condition. I’d suggest Switzerland was the more professional parader, with Traffic Warden the better walker, perhaps needing another component in his maturity to realise his potential.
On that day, Growing Empire entered the mounting enclosure late, and I was surprised that he was still parading somewhat erratic and toey, despite this being his second visit to Flemington.
With that background in mind, the anticipation slowly built during the day towards seeing these three, very different colts, parade once more. In an era of stallion value and expectations outliving their potential racing careers, perhaps it would be the last time that all three would be in the same race. The self-fulfilling prophecy as it would seem, requires these colts have to live up to a reputation built from hypotheticals, each in the quest to conquer a Group 1 race (or in the case of Switzerland, a hemispherical double). Otherwise, retire with their reputations preceding them, dignity arguably intact.
And so here we are, the Lightning Stakes on February 15, 2025. Traffic Warden was the first to warm-up, allowed to stride out multiple times around the pre-parade ring inside the stabling area at Flemington. He was in good order, with improvement to come as one might expect, and whilst his general walk wasn’t as impressive as it was on Derby Day, it was certainly loose and generally confident. His trainer, James Cummings, emerged on the second of his warm-ups, almost to inspect his charge and confirm that his preparation had indeed gone to plan. The only hint of immaturity was when another horse crossed out in front of him, the younger colt taking umbrage at such an act and he shrieked out, requiring his strapper to console him. Traffic Warden was removed from the pre-parade and saddled up to race, before taking his part late in the mounting yard enclosure.
Traffic Warden returns to Flemington, warming-up in the pre-parade area adjacent to the stables, 15 February, 2025.
Switzerland was next to emerge, and he’s simply a professional. Forward in condition, suggesting a preparation of intent and possibly one brief in number of starts, he strolled around the pre-parade with his red ear-muffs and stallion chain calmly noted. Of the three colts on Saturday, he was the best mover, the best behaved, and to the eye (once he had his purple cape removed) he looked in the best physical condition. Of course there is some degree of improvement to come, but with a potential tilt at Royal Ascot on the horizon, it’s hard to know how many attempts he will have at another victory this campaign before the international assignment takes precedence.
Switzerland takes in his surrounds at Flemington, 15 February, 2025.
Finally, Growing Empire joined his customary entourage at Flemington, two strappers doing their best to calm an eager mind. He’s somewhat of a different shape to the other two, more burly, colts, but arguably more athletic in angles and movement. There’s some degree of disappointment in assessing a horse that you know can walk smoothly, the poetry in motion denied by abrupt interruptions or by their mental state on the day. Maybe we will get to see that walk, that flow, once more this preparation. But once Mark Zahra was legged up and they ventured out on to the course, he was all business.
Growing Empire, with his two strappers, emerges in to the mounting yard at Flemington, 15 February, 2025.
As mentioned, Traffic Warden was the first in to the pre-parade ring, but last in to the mounting yard itself. Once he joined his rivals, they left for the barriers. The rest is confined to history, with none of the three colts managing to place, the Lightning won by a relative outsider in Skybird, a mare. No doubt there was commentary from form analysts around the country, with questions being asked as to the quality of the beaten brigade, or what the race means going forward.
I think any line of questioning as to their performances is somewhat unfair without further context, given I haven’t even mentioned the conditions on the day. Flemington has seen hail, lightning, gusty winds and pouring rain, seemingly more than any other metropolitan track over the last year. On Saturday, it began with sporadic heavy rain, seemingly only content with occurring in the lead-up and duration of the races up until race 6. From race 3 onwards, the wind joined in, a persistent south-westerly, cutting across the track in a diagonal line, part headwind and part battering ram for those on the inside in the straight.
Finally, and as Matthew Hill noted, “with a sense of timing”, there were fireworks from Footscray Park. I’m not sure if Hill was alluding to the fireworks being a coincidental celebration to the commencement of the sprint feature, but from my perspective it was a potential irritation and distraction for some equine athletes preparing for the task at hand. It was also interesting to note Jamie Melham, jockey of Traffic Warden, noting post-race that he was simply “very, very well” behind the barriers before the race and caused him to miss the start and race somewhat ungenerously.
Watching the race live, it seemed for a moment like each of the three colts was going to challenge or even win the race. I’ll leave it to others to dissect the sectional splits, impact of the wind and the replays for excuses. But from what I saw on the fence, this was a race and a meeting where conditions played as much of a role as the condition of the horses involved. As a result, we at FTY will bank the statistics and compare the parades to next time we see them, with no regard to the post-mortem.
That is, if we see them.
With every passing year, the expected value of these colts seems to outweigh any desire to see them race long term. After their 3yo season, they almost become too big to fail, as if any failure to not just compete, but guarantee victory in open class somehow diminishes past achievements. I’d argue the opposite, that performing out of their age group actually enhances their previous form, the 2yo and 3yo features being of lesser depth and quality, and confirming elite status relies on longevity. It’s not as if the breeding industry asterisk Group 1 victories in 3yo company when there may have been a heavy track or significant bias on the day, but punters and form analysts will, so why shouldn’t longer careers allow for more context rather than fearing failure?
What it comes down to is racing is made up of many different stories and pursuits. Analysts are happy to focus on the task at hand, the puzzle they find for the weekend ahead. But that’s a different beast to slay than the one facing breeders in a quest to fulfil the destiny of a colt.
